It’s hot here in suburban Philly today. In Baghdad, though, it’s 120 degrees and there’s no running water.

* * *

The Sunni ministers in Nouri al-Maliki’s cabinet have resigned in protest, stoking the sectarian tension.

* * *

There’s a lot of debate about whether the surge is working. Yet the entire public discussion seems to be a bizarre extrapolation from a single data point: that there were fewer U.S. military deaths in July than there were in June. (See CNN video; or Liberal Doomsayer’s grousing about month-to-month vs. year-over-year comparisons.) Never mind that statistical variations happen; that correlation is not causality, and all of that academic jazz.

The point of the surge was to bring stability to Iraq, a country already in the midst of slow-burning civil war. The mission isn’t to reduce American military casualties. That’s a variable that is at least partially under our leadership’s control–we could simply reduce the risks that our troops are exposed to.

No, the point of the surge was to prove that we could keep Iraqi civilians safe if we increased our troop levels. So how are we doing? 1653 Iraqi civilians died in July, compared to 1227 in June. [Source: CNN, from Iraqi Interior Ministry] The AP reports As you you consider these daily tallies, keep in mind that the sum total for U.S. troop deaths in Iraq for the entire month was “only” 77.

July 29: 59 dead
July 28: 44 dead
July 27: 44 dead
July 26: 139-153 dead
July 25: 93 dead
July 24: 59 dead
July 23: 86 dead
July 22: 51 dead
July 21: 91 dead
July 20: 38 dead
July 19: 55 dead
July 18: 92 dead
July 17: 86 dead
July 16: 180 dead
July 15: 62 dead
July 14: 71 dead
July 13: 89 dead
July 12: 101 dead
July 11: 75 dead
July 10: 105 dead
July 9: 78 dead
July 8: 94 dead
July 7: 186 dead
July 6: 84 dead
July 5: 75 dead
July 4: 84 dead
July 3: 78 dead
July 2: 60 dead
July 1: 84 dead
[Source: Iraq Body Count recent events report]

To be absolutely clear: U.S. increases in troop levels in Iraq cannot be shown to have increased the security and stability in Iraq. It is a failed strategy.

See also: Juan Cole, Blake Hounshell.